How to Get the Best Value?
You will see the bookmaker who is offering this particular price along with the odds themselves, while you can also see a probability percentage along with a value score. The value score is calculated by taking the odds about a selection and the calculated probability.
The higher the value score, the more chance you have of winning with your bet. However, if a selection is available at 4.81 and the implied probability is 20%, it still means that there’s an 80% chance of the bet losing even if the 4.81 is a value price.
However, by consistently taking these value bets at Odds1x2.com, you stand a greater chance of landing a profitable return compared to simply betting on other selections. That is because we’ve done the maths to present you with value propositions.
When a bookmaker creates a particular 1x2 betting market for a particular match, then they will have a margin factored into the prices. It’s up to the punter to find the edge that will mean the customer beats the bookie over time.
How is the Probability Calculated?
We have used maths-based modelling to arrive at a probability with every football match that you can see showcased at Odds1x2.com. We then pick out the selections where the value score is at the highest and present them on this page.
You might not agree with our probability percentage and we advise customers to always form their own opinion regarding a particular football match rather than rely on outside data sources although our figures should at least be used to create a betting view.
Can Any Price Be Value?
The short answer is yes. Whether a selection is trading at 1.10 or 101.00, you can still calculate it to be a value proposition. You might think that backing Manchester City to win their football match at 1.10 is bad value. However, if they have won their previous ten Premier League matches, a case can be made for the Citizens at a short price.
Naturally, some customers will not want to bet at odds of 1.10 as they would realistically need to gamble £100 in order to land a return of £110 although the principle still applies that 1.10 is a value price and that the bet stands a greater than 90% chance of winning.
Similarly, odds of 101.00 about a selection suggests that it’s a complete no-hoper. This is the sort of price you might see about a fancy correct scoreline such as 5-4 when Arsenal play against Tottenham Hotspur. However, if the data modelling indicates that there’s a greater than 1% chance of the bet winning, then there’s a case for describing it as value.
Just because a 101.00 shot is regarded as value, it still doesn’t mean it’s likely to win. It might be that 51.00 should be the correct price about the selection and that would still mean only a 2% chance of winning with a bet.
Most betting customers like to place bets somewhere in between. They might look for an even money (2.0) chance and try to work out whether there’s a greater than 50% chance that this selection wins. Providing that you have good data modelling, you would only need to back six even money chances out of ten bets in order to land a profit.